First the Volkswagen’s Abgasskandal. Second, United States’ possible imposition of harsh taxation (35 %[1]) on manufacturers producing in the cheap world zones such as Mexico, instead of on an American soil. Such automobile manufacturers as BMW need government support to make the best out of the growing isolationism of the US (despite American president’s underscoring, that he believes in fair trade, not isolationism).
During the last meeting of German chancellor and American president, the subject of bilateral trade has been raised. Angela Merkel stands her ground in protecting not only Germany’s economy (“$54 billion trade surplus with the U.S.(…)”[2] speaks for itself) but also European Union’s as a whole. Worth mentioning is the fact, that in her visit to the US, Angela Merkel was flanked by most powerful German CEO’s, including Harald Krüger of BMW, “heads of auto supplier Schaeffler and industrial giant Siemens”[3]. They were there to remind the President, that “Deutschland AG” gives jobs to the American population (70.000 hired by BMW[4]) and it isn’t wise to patronize it. BMW’s plant in South Carolina is the biggest factory in the world, but setting up a new one in Mexico is part of a free trade, where entrepreneurs seek savings in, say, labor cost.
Although the negotiations are economical ones, not political, the outcomes will be both. The imposition of taxes on exporters to the US will, in short term, support US economy, although in the long term entrepreneurs will face different challenges, such as costs of importing needed good versus cost of producing them inland. German companies will comply with whatever comes in the end, but German politics will suffer- the defeat will be close to unbearable.
Truly unbearable would be the end of an era of good or decent US- German relations and decay of EU- US relations, maybe even the end of those. With the Russian- like denial of the importance of European institutions and targeting European leaders as those to speak to, ignoring the existence of a supranational organization may in fact shatter it.
Germany’s automotive industry Is far from collapsing and it is bound to thrive even in the darkest of times. Even the VW- scandal hasn’t taken it down, with slower growth and an CEO behind US prison’s bars (till 2018), it still plays big. “The country remains a "strategic core market" - despite the diesel crisis that has been uncovered there (…)”- says VW’s CEO Matthias Müller about US[5]. The plan for the future includes employment redundancy by 30.000 in Audi, but with increased hiring rates in the areas such as software development. This should mark a U-turn in the company’s development: a sign, that German companies finally begin to modernize.
And then, even though Germans might feel a little bit if an unease, squint their face and sigh at the mention of Das Auto, they will still admit that their automotive industry is something to brag about (which they will do with pleasure). If it remains the same for the politics- of which Germans are proud for now, especially when they think about what American must be going through with their highly disliked president- is yet to be discovered. And sooner will the politics be a Trojan horse to the automotive industry, that the other way around.
Dorota Pawłowska
[1] D. Reid, Merkel flies in for Trump meeting flanked by German CEOs, http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/13/merkel-flies-in-for-trump-meeting-flanked-by-german-ceos.html, 19.03.2017.
[2] G. Prodhan, E. Thomasson, Trump predicts fantastic trade deal with Germany, http://www.autonews.com/article/20170317/OEM02/170319861/bmw-ceo-krueger-to-join-germanys-merkel-in-meeting-with-trump, 19.03.2017.
[3] Ibidem.
[4] D. Reid, ibidem.
[5] VW klammert sich an die USA, http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/vw-klammert-sich-an-die-usa-a-1138672.html, 19.03.2017.